Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Dangit NBA Preview. . .uhh . .Dangit.

I have no life. Here is what follows:

Using Sports Illustrated NBA Preview I have assigned a number to every team's top 8 players (and any other relevant rotation players). Every team plays 8 during the regular season no matter how thin they are. The ratings are as follows:
10 - Top 5 - 10 NBA Player
9 - Legit superstar (Top 20)
8 - Starts for any team in the league
7 - Solid starter
6 - Starter
5- Fringe starter
4- Solid Backup
3- Rotation Player
2- Rotation player?
1- Should be part of no one's rotation

For a couple there is a number with a "?" behind it. This is for when I have 0 anecdotal knowedge of this player and are relying solely on John Hollinger, Bill Simmons and general reputation.

Sadly, in reverse order of SI's Western Conference predictions: I begin.

15) Minnesota Timberwolves
Randy Foye - 6
Gerald Green - 2.5
Ryan Gomes - 5.5
Al Jefferson - 7.5
Theo Ratliff - 4

Antoine Walker - 1.5
Craig Smith - 6
Corey Brewer - 3

Score from top 8: 36

14) Seattle Supersonics
Luke Ridnour - 6.5
Kevin Durant - 7.5
Damien Wilkins - 5?
Chris Wilcox - 5?
Nick Collison - 4.5

Kurt Thomas - 3
Earl Watson - 4
Wally Sczerbiak - 5
Jeff Green - 4

Score - Thomas = 41.5

13. Portland Trail Blazers

Jarret Jack - 6.5
Brandon Roy - 7
Travis Outlaw - 4?
LaMarcus Aldridge - 6
Joel Pryzbilla - 3

Channing Frye - 3
Steve Blake - 4
Martell Webster - 3

Score: 26

12. Sacramento Kings
Mike Bibby - 7.5
Kevin Martin - 7
Ron Artest - 6.5
Mikki Moore - 6
Brad Miller - 7

Francisco Garcia - 2
Kenny Thomas - 3
Shareef Abdur Rahim - 3

Score: 41

11) Memphis Grizzlies

Damon Stoudamire - 3
Mike Miller - 5
Rudy Gay - 4
Pau Gasol - 8.5
Stromile Swift - 6

Juan Carlos Navarro - ? - ?
Hakim Warrick - 4
Darko ! - 4.5
Mike Conley Jr. - 6

Score: 41.5

10) L.A. Clippers

Sam Cassell - 6
Cuttino Mobley - 5
Corey Maggette - 6.5
Al Thornton - 4
Chris Kaman - 6

Tim Thomas - 3
Ruben Patterson - 5
Quinton Ross - 4

Score: 39

9) LA Lakers

Derek Fisher - 4
Kobe Bryant - 10
Luke Walton - 5
Lamar Odom - 8
Andrew Bynum - 4.5

Kwame Brown - 4
Vlad Rad - 5
Jordan Farmar - 4

Score: 44

8) New Orleans Hornets
Chris Paul - 9
Morris Peterson - 4
Peja Stojakovic - 6
David West - 8
Tyson Chandler - 7.5

Julian Wright - 3
Hilton Armstrong - 3
Rasual Butler - 3

Score: 43.5

7) Golden State Warriors

Baron Davis - 8.5
Monta Ellis - 6
Stephen Jackson - 6.5
Al Harrington - 6
Andris Biedrins - 6

Matt Barnes - 5
Mickael Pietrus - 5
Patrick O'Bryant - 1

Score: 44

Utah Jazz

Deron Williams - 8.5
Ronnie Brewer - 4
Andrei Kirilenko - 6.5
Carlos Boozer - 8
Mehmet Okur - 8

Paul Milsap - 7
Matt Harpring - 5
Gordan Giricek - 3

Score: 50

Houston Rockets

Rafer Alston - 4
Tracy McGrady - 9
Shane Battier - 7.5
Luis Scola - 6
Yao Ming - 9

Chuck Hayes - 5?
Luther Head - 4.5
Mike James - 4.5
Steve Francis - 6

Scores: 58

Denver Nuggets

Allen Iverson - 9
J.R. Smith - 5
Carmelo Anthony - 9.5
Kenyon Martin - 6
The Camby Man - 8

Nene - 6
Linas Kleiza - 5
Chucky Atkins - 3.5

Score: 51.5

Phoenix Suns

Steve Nash - 9.5
Raja Bell - 5
Boris Diaw - 6
Shawn Marion - 8.5
Amare Stoudemire - 9.5

Leandro Barbosa - 7
Grant Hill - 6
Alando Tucker - 3

Score - 56.5

2) San Antonio Spurs

Tony Parker - 9
Michael Finley - 6.5
Bruce Bowen - 5
Tim Duncan - 10
Fabricio Oberto - 6

Manu Ginobili - 8.5
Brent Barry - 4
Francisco Elson 3.5

Score: 52

1) Dallas Mavericks

Devin Harris - 6.5
Jason Terry - 7
Josh Howard - 8
Dirk Nowitzki - 9.5
Erick Dampier - 5.5

Jerry Stackhouse - 6
Trenton Hassel - 4
DeSagana Diop - 5
Eddie Jones - 4

Score: 51.5

The East:

Philadelphia 76ers

Samuel Dalembert - 6.5
Reggie Evans - 5
Andre Iguodala - 8
Willie Green - 3
Andre Miller - 7.5

Kyle Korver - 4.5
Rodney Carney - 2.5
Louis Williams - 2

Score: 39

Charlotte Bobcats

Raymond Felton - 6
Jason Richardson - 8
Gerald Wallace - 8
Emeka Okafor - 7
Primoz Brezec - 2.5

Matt Carroll - 3
Walter Herrman - 4
Jared Dudley - 4

Score: 41.5

Atlanta Hawks

Speedy Claxton - 4
Joe Johnson - 9
Marvin Williams - 3.5
Josh Smith - 5
Zaza Pachulia - 5

Acie Law - 3.5
Al Horford - 6
Josh Childress - 6.5
Shelden Williams 3.5

Score: 42.5

12) Indiana Pacers

Jamaal Tinsley - 4
Mike Dunleavy - 4
Danny Granger - 6
Troy Murphy - 4
Jermaine O'Neal - 9

Jeff Foster - 3
Ike Diogu - 4.5
Marquis Daniels - 5.5

Score: 40

Milwaukee Bucks

Mo Williams - 5
Michael Redd - 9.5
Desmond Mason - 5
Charlie Villanueva - 5
Andrew Bogut - 7

Charlie Bell - 6
Dan Gadzuric - 3
Bobby Simmons - 6

Score: 46.5

10) Orlando Magic

Jameer Nelson - 5
JJ Redick - 3.5
Hedo Turkoglu - 4
Rashard Lewis - 8
Dwight Howard - 9

Carlos Arroyo - 4
Trevor Ariza - 4.5
Adonal Foyle - 3

Score - 40.5

9) New Jersey Nets

Jason Kidd - 8
Vince Carter - 8
Richard Jefferson - 6
Nenad Kristic - 6.5
Jason Collins - 2

Bostjon Nachbar - ?
Jamaal Magloire - 5
Marcus Williams - 4
Sean Williams - 4

Score: 38

8) Toronto Raptors

TJ Ford - 6
Anthony Parker - 4
Jason Kapono - 4.5
Andrea Bargnani - 7
Chris Bosh - 9.5

Jose Calderon - 6.5
Jorge Garbosa - 5
Rasho Nesterovic - 3

Score: 45.5

7) Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas - 10
DeShawn Stevenson - 3.5
Caron Butler - 7.5
Antawn Jamison - 7.5
Brendan Haywood - 3.5

Antonio Daniels - 5?
Darius Songaila - 4
Andray Blatche - 3.5

Score: 45.5

6) New York Knicks

Stephon Marbury - 6?
Jamal Crawford - 6
Quentin Richardson - 4
Zach Randolph - 8.5
Eddy Curry - 8

David Lee - 7.5
Nate Robinson - 4
Jared Jeffries - 3
Renaldo Balkman - 5

Score: 49

5) Cleveland Cavaliers

Daniel Gibson - 4.5
Larry Hughes - 7
LeBron James - 10
Drew Gooden - 7
The Big Z - 6.5

Donyell Marshall - 2.5
Damon Jones - 3.5
Devin Brown - 3

Score: 44

4) Miami Heat

Jason Williams - 6
Dwyane Wade - 10
Ricky Davis - 7
Udonis Haslem - 7
Shaq Fu - 8

Alonzo Mourning - 7
Smush Parker - 3
Dorrell Wright - 3
Mark Blount - 3

Score - 51

3) Chicago Bulls

Kirk Hinrich - 7.5
Ben Gordon - 7
Luol Deng - 8.5
Tyrus Thomas - 6.5
Ben Wallace - 6

Andres Nocionie - 6.5
Joe Smith - 3.5
Thabo Sefolosha - 4.5
Joakim Noah - 4

Score: 50.5

2) Detroit Pistons

Chauncey Billups - 8
Rip Hamilton - 7.5
Tayshaun Prince - 7.5
Rasheed Wallace - 7.5
Antonio McDyess - 4.5

Jason Maxiell - 5
Flip Murray - 4.5
Rodney Stuckey - 3

Score: 47.5

1) Boston Celtics
Rajon Rondo - 4
Ray Allen - 8
Paul Pierce - 9
Kevin Garnett - 10
Kendrick Perkins - 3.5

Eddie House - 4.5
James Posey - 5
Scot Pollard - 1.5
Tony Allen - 4

Score: 48



10:
Kevin Garnett
Dwyane Wade
LeBron James
Gilbert Arenas
Tim Duncan
Kobe Bryant

9.5:
Carmelo Anthony
Steve Nash
Chris Bosh
Michael Redd
Amare Stoudemire
Dirk Nowitzki

9:
Chris Paul
Tracy McGrady
Yao Ming
Allen Iverson
Tony Parker
Joe Johnson
Jermaine O'Neal
Dwight Howard
Paul Pierce

8.5
Luol Deng
Zach Randolph
Manu Ginobili
Shawn Marion
Deron Williams
Baron Davis
Pau Gasol

8
Ray Allen
Chauncey Billups
Shaquille O'Neal
Eddy Curry
Vince Carter
Jason Kidd
Rashard Lewis
Gerald Wallace
Jason Richardson
Andre Iguodala
Josh Howard
David West

7.5
Rasheed Wallace
Tayshaun Prince
Rip Hamilton
Kirk Hinrich
David Lee
Antawn Jamison
Caron Butler
Andre Miller
Shane Battier
Tyson Chandler
Mike Bibby
Kevin Durant
Al Jefferson

7
Alonzo Mourning
Ricky Davis
Ben Gordon
Udonis Haslem
Gooden
Hughes
Bargnani
Bogut
Okafor
Terry
Barbosa
Milsap
Miller
Martin
Roy


Rankings based on tiering system - West
1) Rockets 58
2)Suns 56.5
3) Spurs 52
4) Mavs 51.5
5) Nuggets 51.5
6) Utah Jazz 51
7) Lakers - 44
8) Warriors - 44
9)Hornets - 43.5
10) Supersonics - 41.5
11) Hornets- 41.5
12) Kings - 40
13) Clippers - 39
14) Timberwolves - 36
15) Trailblazers - 26

East:
1) Miami Heat - 51
2) Chicago Bulls - 50.5
3)
3) Boston Celtics - 48
4) Pistons - 47.5
5)

Friday, October 19, 2007

"Mike Hart NFL comparison = Emmitt Smith?"

This is the text message I received from my fellow blogger, Chubbs Kellett this night around 10 PM. And it raises an interesting point: How does Mike Hart project as an NFL prospect?

To start off, let me be clear: As a Michigan fan, I really couldn't give two shits where Mike Hart projects as an NFL prospect. For my money he is the best running back in Michigan history. Period. Yes, better than Perry, Wheatley, Biakabatuka, and Gerald Ford. I can't imagine anyone being a more consistent dominating force. Also, I don't necessarily care to debate this point. Arguments can be made for each guy, and I don't care to denigrate any of these other players to make my point. Just need you to know I feel this way about Mike Hart.

At the same time, I think comparing Hart to Smith is a little unfair to Emmitt. Chubbs (and I, actually) do not think too highly of Emmitt as a runner. This is because of one main reason: Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders were always considered running back 1. and 1a. when people talked about great runners in the early-mid 90's. Obviously, Sanders outperformed Emmitt with inferior players around him, and Sanders was the better player. This leads us to irrationally, but understably, underrate Emmitt Smith.

I understand where Chubbs is coming from: Hart and Smith are almost exactly the same size (though Emmitt does have about an inch and 15 pounds on him); and both are agile bruising, short yardage specialists. However, while Emmitt was no burner, he was if not faster than Hart in raw speed (which I believe he was), but considering how the game has changed, Emmitt's relative speed is much better than Hart's. And speed is the biggest knock to Mike Hart's playing career. During Emmitt's 6 prime years with Dallas he had long rushes of 75, 68, 62, 46, and 60 yards. Not enormous for a running back, but still huge. In college, Hart's have been 34, 64, 54, and 61 consecutively. (Emmitt's college stats are really unavailable on the internet. It's insane. If anyone can find his longs at Florida, I beg you to post them.) Anecdotally, Emmitt was able to outrun safeties every now and again in his younger days in Dallas, and Hart has really never been able to - even at the college level against some truly awful opponents. Secondly, the NFL is so much faster than it was when Emmitt was good. Safeties now play linebacker spots, LBs play on the D-line and so forth.

The comparison also lacks in one other way: durability. Even if you don't think Emmitt was fast or shifty, and thought the O-line was more important than the big 3 in big D, there is no denying Emmitt Smith's durability. He didn't miss games in the NFL. Hart, on the other hand, has been injured every season at Michigan. There have always been whispers even when he has played how he's had a bad shoulder or a bad knee going into a game. Even as I write this he is questionable with a sprained ankle. (As a sidebar - when's the last time a Michigan RB has stayed healthy in the NFL: Leroy Hoard? Perry, Wheatley, Biakabatuka, A-Train all battled injury or ineffectiveness throughout their careers.)

However, running back to running back. Its tough to think of a better comparison. I get to see Rudi Johnson regularly, and Rudi was an extremely effective runner without ever breaking a long run. In addition, Rudi was an extremely prolific college back who was very underrated because of his lack of speed. On the other hand, Rudi is a classic super-thick, extremely durable "bruising" running back - and there have been those types of runners from Franco Harris to Jerome Bettis to whoever else. In terms of size and talent, Emmitt is a closer fit.

To truly discuss the uniqueness of Mike Hart, we have to go outside the RB comparison. In fact, the best comparison we have to Mike Hart is former Florida State great Peter Warrick.

Think about it.

Both guys were/are severely undersized for their position.
Both guys were/are the best player in college football by the time they were seniors.
Both guys are extremely slow for their position. (For those of you who don't know, PW ran right near a 4.6 at the combine.)
Both guys were/are standouts in college because of:
1) a freaky, almost supernatural agility
2) a similar crazy ability to break tackles consistently despite their size/speed.

There has never been another college wideout like PW, and there has never been a running back like Mike Hart.

While most people will consider this a bad omen for Hart, Warrick was never used properly in the NFL until his final injury free year with Kitna at the helm and Chad Johnson on the other side. That year he rushed for 140 yards, caught 80 balls for 850 yards and blocked terrifically. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his career.

Luckily, as a running back. Hart's QB matters very little. He will be able to make an impact right away. So, even if he only has 5 -7 good years, they won't be squandered the way Warrick's were in Cincinnati.

Unfortunately, like PW, wasn't a true number 1 wideout, I'm not sure Hart can be a constant number 1option at running back. In today's NFL, essentially, if you are a top 5 RB, you are the man. Everyone else platoons. Hart is going to have to platoon, and he will need a platoon. A guy who has this much trouble staying healthy for a 12 game season is going to have a heck of a time for a 16 game NFL season. Just like PW needed Chad to stretch the field, Hart is going to need another back to take some carries off and possibly to change the pace from his style, maybe someone to stretch the field. But, I don't believe Hart will ever be able to be the man like Emmitt was. The game is too fast and he's just not durable enough.

At the same time. Here are the running backs I would take clearly over Hart:
Tomlinson
Addai
Gore (maybe)
ADP
Brian Westbrook
Michael Turner

maybe:
Ronnie Brown (just a physical beast)
Marion Barber
Willie Parker

And that's it.

Go Blue.