NBA BLOG Halloween Edition:

• I have no idea what to think about Dwyane Wade this season.  In game 1 against the Knicks he acted like Kobe Bryant of three years ago.  He shot constantly, was ornery with teammates, showed no chemistry with the young guys and refused to pass the ball to anyone other than Udonis Haslem.  That combined with his lifelong refusal to guard three point shooters when he is off the ball made for a maddening game against a Knicks team that has a fair amount of offensive talent.  The thing that has always separated Wade at his best from LeBron and Kobe has been Wade's security on the offensive floor.  Both Kobe and LeBron seem to make up their mind about who is finishing a play with 20 seconds left on the shot clock.  Wade, at his best, is like Steve Nash - able to hold on to the ball until the last  moment and find open guys or finish at the hoop.  Wade's 20 point 8 assist performance against the Kings was Wade at his best - his 29 and 9 against the Knicks was him at his worst.
• One more note about the Heat, Michael Beasley is an ambidextrous freak of nature.  He can finish with either hand from 8 feet in.  Oddly, the HEAT, so far are not running him many plays at all, making him mainly a spot up shooter.  If they want to save Wade's legs and free up Marion near the boards, Beasley has to be able to make plays.
• The Kings are going to be the worst team in the league.  Kevin Martin is the only legitimate starter on that team.  And, he's a shooting guard who average 2 assists per game last year.  He's a scorer, not a playmaker - like super Jeff Hornacek.  Everyone else on that team blows.
• I refuse to acknowledge that I picked Orlando to make the finals.  They are not a very good team.  Jameer Nelson needs to be on a bench somewhere and there is no way Turkoglu is as good as he was last season.  I hate to take the Celtics, but they look the best so far and are as good as they were last season.  I hate the Cavs, because I'm still not convinced LeBron really cares all that much; Miami doesn't have a post scorer....  I'll get back to you.

Blog from Day 1 of the NBA:

• I have officially already drank the Bulls Kool-Aid for what seems like the 15th consecutive year. Apparently they are committing to Ty Thomas, D-Rose, and Luol Deng as their three go-to guys. They were the only ones to play more then 30 minutes tonight and all responded. Particularly Ty with a 15 and 10. They brought Hinrich, Gordon, Nocioni, and Noah off the bench today. You have to think this team will figure it out this year. Should I mention they were playing the Bucks? http://www.nba.com/games/20081028/MILCHI/boxscore.html
• Bickel and Chubbs: This is the beginning of my "Greg Oden is a bum" campaign. Statline tonight: 0 pts. 2 turnovers, 1 block, 5 boards... and from watching the game. . HE LIMPS. .. CONSTANTLY.
• Good news for Cavs fans: LeBron has learned a backdoor cut and spent most the game looking for easy baskets behind the defense. Bad news for Cavs fans: LeBron had Tony Allen posted up 5 feet from the hoop twice, no double team, and he dribbled away from the hoop to the three point line. Unbelievable these aren't layups for him, yet. But, in all honesty, their coach has a good strategy. LeBron is going to see lots of time at the 4. And, he responded by knocking the ball away from KG in the post and throwing in a couple of blocks. Bron could be a terror around the rim this year.

The Definitive NBA Preview:

Ten Topics:


1) The Indiana Pacers and the Caucasian frontcourt: According to Sports Illustrated the Pacers are starting Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, and Greg Foster this year. Why is no one talking about this? An entire frontcourt of white players?! This can't work, right? What must TJ Ford and Danny Granger be thinking? Who will this team guard? Granger is good on defense but he's a natural small forward and he's going to be defending the other team's best perimeter player every night? But, this also makes the Pacers a legitimate threat to go with an all-white team at some point this year. It's a stretch, but Diener, Dunleavy, Murphy, McRoberts, and Foster? It could happen.



2) LeBron James? Just another year for him this year. 30 8 and 8. A couple 50 point explosions, a few 15 assist games, and a top 3 MVP candidate. So why stay down on the league's most unique talent of all time? Because he still misuses his talents. If there was anything the Olympics showed us, it is that LeBron can be an absolute monster defending the rim and the post. It also showed his main flaw: How terribly uncomfortable he is playing off of the ball or with his back to the basket. With a playmaking and great shooting point guard that demands the ball in his hands, (Mo Williams) LeBron will have to find ways to be a force without running every play. The question is, can he?




3) Wade, Marion, Beasley, Haslem . . .and???? Wade should give the Heat another 60 games this year of being the most terrifying offensive force on the planet, Beasley should give them a surefire second option, and this team will be an outstanding rebounding team thanks to the four of these guys as well. Unfortunately, the East is officially back and they have zero other players. At least in the backcourt there is some potential with Banks, Chalmers, and Livingston to pair with Wade. But, in the front court, you only have spindly Dorell Wright (incidentally, another great rebounder), the awful Jamal Magloire and Mark Blount. I think they make the playoffs if these 4 stay healthy. But if even one goes down? . .You just can't win with Mario Chalmers, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, and Jamal Magloire playing 30 minutes a night. . . can you?



4) The Hornets: Here is what I don't get about the Hornets.. Chris Paul has one of the greatest years ever for a point guard; David West stays healthy and has a career year; and Chandler realizes his full potential. Why do people think this team can be better than last year? There are only three ways it can get better: Julian Wright makes a leap and can back up 3 positions effectively or Paul morphs into a top 5 all time player. Those people that think Posey is making the difference is mistaken. Every year James (my 3rd favorite NBA player) gets a little worse at defending perimeter stars, and they need a guy who can guard guards, not forwards. Also, there is not a backup PG on the team worth even mentioning.

5) Gilbert Arenas: Yeah, Bill Simmons basically stole my whole point about Gil. He's a fun player to watch, but the Wizards would just be better with Andre Miller in this spot. They need someone to distribute and play some defense. They have all the scoring they need.

6) The Chicago Bulls are officially 11 deep, and might not make the playoffs: D-Rose, Captain Kirk, Luol Deng, Drew Gooden, Joakim, Ben Gordon, Larry Hughes, Ty Thomas, Noc, Thabo, and Aaron Gray. Fine, I hate Aaron Gray, but other people are high on him. But they have 10 guys who could be in the rotation on a championship team, but not 1 could be a top 2 guy on a championship team. I have been high on this team for so long, but damn, unless Rose turns out to be a legit star, I see them fighting for a playoff spot again.

7) For the 5th consecutive year, taking umbrage with Chubbs' "surprise" picks: Here is a hard and fast rule. In the NBA, to call a team a "surprise" you have to predict them to make the playoffs. And to call a team a "dissapointment," they need to actually be predicted to make the playoffs. Chubbs, however, has picked the Nuggets (playoff fringe contenders for 3 years and lost Camby) as his dissapointment, and the Knicks as his surprise with the disclaimer that HE DOESN'T THINK THE KNICKS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. This is a signficiant problem.

8) Ladies and Gentlemen: The softest starting 5 in NBA history: I present to you, Devin Harris, Vince Carter, Bobby Simmons, Yi Jianlian, and Brook Lopez. For those of you keeping track at home, the Nets front court averaged a total of 16.5 rebounds per game last year. . . Their center was in college. . . Just random teams from SI in the East .. Knicks averaged 24, Heat 31, Bucks 20, Hawks 22. . . I can keep going, but I'm willing to bet that every other starting frontcourt in the NBA averaged at least 20 rebounds in a game. . .

9) The Durantuala v. Oden part Deux: No one was more dissapointed by Durant's first year than I was, most notably his abominable shooting percentage from beyond the arc (29%). However, he still finisehd with 20, 4, and 3 - all this while being played as a SHOOTING Guard. . . Wait, so a 6'10" player with killer post moves and averaged a rebound every 3 minutes in college shouldn't be playing 30 feet from the hoop and going one on one with shooting guards when his handle is the ONLY FLAW IN HIS GAME! Durant is not a guard. He has never been a guard, he has never been a good enough ball handler or defender to be a guard... Yet, for the second consecutive year, he is starting as a shooting guard.

Whatever. The point is, that this is Durant's absolute floor as a player. 20 points a game on 42 percent shooting without much other statistical contribution.. Which is MUCH higher than Oden's floor. And always was.

Again, in college, Durant was a better rebounder, shooter, passer, ballhandler, on the ball defender, and leader than Greg Oden. Oden was and is better at one thing: blocking shots. He is great at it, and will be good at it in the NBA. But this debate will not end well for the Blazers.

10) Early Prediction: Spurs over Magic...

TEAM USA: The Corvette Lineup

In another classy game from the American side, the US was legitimately tested for the first time all Olympics nearly losing the first quarter to the chippy Australians. LeBron had a great game along with Deron Williams. All that aside, though. For two minutes, Coach K showed the lineup that he has in his back pocket when all the chips are down. In the second quarter with Australia still hanging around. Coach K made substitutions resulting in this look
PG: Deron Williams
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF: Kobe Bryant
PF: Carmelo Anthony
C: LeBron James

Quickly, Anthony picked up his second foul and was substituted out for Chris Bosh (who, incidentally, is a phenomenal international basketball player. He shoots, he defends inside, defends the perimeter. His offensive post game is not great, but he is solid and fun to watch.) But, this is the lineup K will turn to if the game is close in the 2nd or 3rd to try to turn the game around. For about two minutes they were dominant - the best offensive and defensive lineup the US can throw at you.
The three best shooters - Williams, Bryant, and Anthony, team up with the two most dynamic offensive players in the tournament - James and Wade. In addition, James has proved to be the most effective player at defending the rim for the US with weakside blocks (Bryant and Wade also thrive in that role.)

So, look for this lineup the next time the US finds themselves in a major pinch.

Jet Favre!

Brett Favre is a Jet. Chad Pennington is a Dolphin. And, both teams are delightfully mediocre. Really, for me personally, this whole saga could not have played out any worse. Pennington is now in Miami delaying the brilliant Chad Henne era that I was ramping up for, and Favre is in New York which will take the Brett Favre coverage from totally ungodly annoying to psychotic.

The weirdest aspect of all this is how I became somehow pro Aaron Rodgers in all this nonsense. I didn't even think he deserved to be a first round pick when he was drafted. I figured him to be a weak-armed product of Joe Tedford's system at Cal which has produced not just mediocre but terrible quarterbacks in the NFL. But, now, given the beard and hair he grew out in the offseason and the "f u" attitude he took with this whole situation. I am starting to believe he could actually be a good quarterback.

And one more thought on Pennington. Remember, last year when Leftwich was cut for David Garrard. And, everyone was like, "Wow, not a terrible move. But Leftwich could really help some team that needs a QB." And then he got to Atlanta and everyone realized that he is not even a back-up quality quarterback in the NFL. I see this situation with Pennington playing out quite similarily. And with Henne and Beck waiting in the wings I just really have to believe that Pennington will not be starting the second half of this season.

Thoughts on Team USA's route of China:

• Dwyane Wade is finally healthy after about 18 months of not being so. And, again he has established that, when healthy, he is the most terrifying offensive basketball player on the planet. 19 points of 7/7 from the field and 5/5 from the FT line. Made several passes that led immediately to fouls on China and had a massive alley oop pass to LeBron James in the coolest play of the day.
• Wade has been great but he also typifies the major flaw of Team USA on defense. They still just don't get that you need to guard the three point line at all times. Wade regularly doubles down, gambles off the ball and jumps in front of screens. And China stayed in the game into the third quarter because they had so many open looks from deep. They really need to stay at home more often because one-on-one, there are not many players capable of really breaking down any of USA's defenders.
• Jason Kidd is playing purely out of respect for him at this point. Don't get me wrong, he had a nice game and on a fast break the passes he picked out were really awesome to watch. But still, Deron Williams is a great shooter, and Chris Paul is a better pentrator and better in the half court. Kidd is losing playing time and that will continue.
• George W. George H.W. and some old Chinese Prime Minister was in the stands for the game (W was even in the huddle with team USA before hand!) Also up there was Jeb and one of the Bush daughters (not the saucy one who went to Texas, the other one.) So, at one point they show the 8 of them on the Jumbotron, and honest to God, Jeb elbows W's daughter and like excitedly points at the damn screen! This guy was governor of Florida for 8 years was in the middle of the 2000 election imbroglio and still gets as excited when he makes the big screen as my fellow blogger Chubbs would. Good times.
• These Chinese people love Kobe Bryant. It's crazy.
• I was wildly impressed with Chris Bosh today. He was a fierce rebounder, terriffic defender and I have become convinced that he can handle the late-game duties at center if Dwight Howard's free throw troubles continue.
• Finally, seeing either Dwight Howard or LeBron James bully their way to the hoop on a fast break is going to continue to be the most pleasing subplot of these games. Both those guys are absolute horrors when they have a full head of steam. Yao got totally dazed trying and failing to take a charge from LeBron and Dwight just routinely dunked on guys like they were not there. Neither of these things are really relevant to US's chances at gold. But both are pleasing to the eye.

Baseball and Run Differentials.

As we all know, it is run differential which is more indicative of future success than actual win total is. Since we have just passed by the midway point, allow me to reposition the postseason candidates via their run differential.

The Sure Thing:

Chicago Cubs (+107)
As much as it pains me to say this, the Cubs have been the most dominant team in baseball this year. Even more so than their record indicates (it's the best in baseball.) They have a terror of a lineup, a solid bullpen, and enough starting pitchig - especially with the addition of Rich Harden - who, at his worst will give them 8 great starts before breaking down. (Actually, if I was the Cubs I wouldn't even let him pitch until about 4 weeks left in the season so he's fresh for the postseason. Stuff gets no better than Zambrano-Harden 1-2 punch.) But, it's safe to say that the Cubs are assured a spot in the postseason.

Good bets
Boston Red Sox (+87)
The Sox have "struggled" this year especially when they got swept by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. But, they are nearly a sure thing to win the division even trailing the Rays. Their run differential is thirty runs better and they have done this largely without David Ortiz who could be returning. Additionally, they have more good major league-ready arms than any team in baseball. Injuries to their pitchers don't seem to phase them because they always have a Lester, Buchholz, Masterson who can step in. Okajima, though, has been terrible this year and shouldn't even have a job anymore.

Chicago White Sox (+82)
They seem to get by on smoke and mirrors sometimes. Gavin Floyd? John Danks? Jermain Dye? Carlos Quentin? If you look at the roster it seems like this is one of those flukey teams destined to fail in the second half. But, fact is, they have been much more solid than the Twins who only trail them by a game and a half despite a pretty meager run differential (+17). At this point it just can't be a fluke. Sox will roll to the title.

Philadelphia Philles (+81)
Hmm. I am almost hesitant to include them here because of the park they play in. They are awfully inconsistent when I watched them. But, they may have the game's best all around player in Chase Utley, and Howard is only starting to heat up. They're leading their division by only 1.5 games, but I can't see them playing much worse. Although, Mets and Marlins could both be in play here.

Surprise
Tampa Bay Rays (+53)
The Rays are for real. Nothing flukey about their run differential.

Oakland Athletics (+69)
Their differential has to make them the favorites going forward in the AL West - even with the loss of Harden.

After that there is a mess of teams with positive in differentials which are not too significant. The Yankees, Cardinals, Angels, Blue Jays, Twins, Mets, Brewers, and Braves.

Also, the Diamondbacks have been crappy this year and deserve their shitty record and run differential. But, I thought they were the best team in the NL at the start of the year, and I still think they can make a run with their talent.

Boxing Part 2:

First, I am going to respond to fellow idiot, David Bickel's boxing questions and claims. These are taken directly from comments on my last article. And, they are pretty good casual boxing fan thoughts and questions.

1) Mayweather needs to come back and fight Cotto
Obviously, even casual fans understand that this fight needed/needs to happen. I saw Floyd in an interview explaining his beef with Cotto's promotional company - and I actually buy it. Floyd doesn't want to put coin in Bob Arum's pocket, because he doesn't like Bob. Ricky Hatton actually always used the same defense for ducking Junior Witter -a fellow UK Junior Welterweight. When you become this big of a star, you have the power to shit on people who don't treat you, right. Mayweather is basically saying that when Cotto is a big enough star to increase his pay in the fight, he will fight him. While it's not awesome, I don't mind that. My bigger problem with Floyd is that his last four fights: Arturo Gatti, Carlos Baldomir, Oscar De La Hoya, and Ricky Hatton were jokes in a lot of ways. He chose Baldomir because Carlos had just won a paper title and was slow (in fact Baldomir is nearly out of boxing only two years removed from that title fight); he put on a massively boring fight with De La Hoya for a quick buck (which I don't fault him for at all - it made him a star); and then he boxes a guy in a lower weight class who also isn't as fast as him. He has cherry picked overrated big name fighters for four consecutive fights, when the welterweight division is packed with great fighters - Paul Williams, Cotto, Margarito, Cintron, Collazo, and the biggest disgrace - Shane Mosely. Moseley - Mayweather would have been an absolutely huge fight, and Floyd's best chance at fighting a nearly mirrored opponent, and he ducked Moseley too! He has spent a good three years ducking an entire division - which happens to be the most exciting division in boxing. That is why I just can't put him as my pound for pound champion even when he returns. In many ways, his reign has been similar to Roy Jones Jr. Fight tough fights, work your way up, become a star, fight bums, stop challenging within your own division for megafights.

#2. i've only seen pavlik fight once... it was his last fight and he obliterated the dude he was fighting, so i was impressed.
Yeah, the Gary Lockett fight wasn't much. If you have HBO On-Demand you really need to go to Kelly Pavlik's Greatest Hits if they are still up there. He is the most exciting American fighter in the world. His fights against Zertuche, Miranda, Taylor, and Taylor II was a fantastic and impressive four fight stretch and Pavlik-Taylor I is the best fight I have ever seen live. I hope Kelly goes the other way than Mayweather. Here should be his plan:
1) Fight Winky Wright - Winky hasn't been heard from in well over a year; and always makes outrageous monetary claims he doesn't deserve. But Wink has to be desperate at this point. It's a dangerous scary fight for Kelly, but he needs to clear out the Middleweight division fast.
2) Fight Arthur Abraham - if he gets past Wright, he fights fellow titleholder Abraham from Germany. Go to Germany if you have to - it's not unprecedented. If he beats Winky and Abraham hs work is done in that division. He will go down as one of the greatest middleweights of all time, and can start marching up the ladder with no stone unturned.
Kelly and his trainer think he is big enough to one day even capture a Heavyweight crown. But he has to fight the best first.


#3. can ricky hatton fight again soon?

Yeah, Ricky fought just about a month ago on the Versus Network against Luis Collazo. It wasn't all that good of a fight. Ricky looked rusty and was almost dropped in the 10th round. In the fall he will fight this greasy New Jersey fighter Paul Malignanni , who looked even worse on Ricky's undercard that night. But, hopefully he will get by the Magic Man, and then we all could be in for a treat because Manny Pacquiao has plans to go up to Junior Welterweight to fight Hatton if they both keep winning. Old Ricky has always been a little overrated because he is so darn likable. His division is weak, and he's a lot older than his age because of his diet, drinking, lifestyle, weight changes. I think he probably has 4 fights left, and I would imagine that the Pac-Man would be his most dangerous remaining opponent.